Why the Federal Reserve Needs To Go Beyond Interest Rate Policy
Why the Federal Reserve Needs To Go Beyond Interest Rate Policy
KIM BROWN, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. Im Kim Brown in Baltimore.
Interests rates will remain unchanged. That coming out of this weeks meeting of the Federal Reserve in DC....
KIM BROWN, TRNN: Welcome to the Real News Network. Im Kim Brown in Baltimore.
Interests rates will remain unchanged. That coming out of this weeks meeting of the Federal Reserve in DC. The official word from the feds, per their own statement, was that job gains have been solid, that household spending has been growing strongly, and inflation is running below expectations. But does this mean that the economy is actually doing well or are we still in a recession dressed up to appear better than what it actually is?
Joining us today from New York City is Jerald Epstein. Jerald is the co-director of the Political Economy Research Institute. Hes also professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Jerald welcome back.
JERALD EPSTEIN: Thanks a lot Kim.
BROWN: Jerald lets start with the basics and then we can delve a little bit deeper. If the economy is showing the signs of strength as the Fed has indicated, then why didnt they raise interest rates now and do you think that they are likely to do so at all this year?
EPSTEIN: Well I think Janet Yellen whos the chair of the Fed, is aware that even though its been showing strength and the economy has been growing moderately for several years now, that theres still much more room to go. That is that wage growth has gone up a tiny bit more than inflation recently, its still pretty stagnant, pretty flat line and she knows theres still a number of workers out that who are so discouraged that they havent joined the labor force. So Janet Yellen is concerned about the labor force and the growth of wages but the problem is twofold. First of all, its always dangerous to raise interest rates around election time. So traditionally the federal reserve, theyll try not to do that, move interest rates right around an election. So thats one factor leading them not to do anything.
The second factor leading them not to do anything is that keeping inflation under control is one of their main mandates. They have two. Maintaining inflation at a low rate and they have a 2% target, and reaching high employment. Inflation is still below 2%. Theres really no signs of inflation going up. So theres no compelling reason from the point of view of the macro economy to raise interest rates.
BROWN: Its funny that you mention that the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates or even mess with the interest rate around election time because the Republican nominee for president, Donald Trump has already accused Chairwoman Yellen of keeping the interest rates unchanged in order to appease the Obama administration. She of course has denied this. What are your thoughts?
EPSTEIN: Well I dont think she did it for Clinton or Obama. But it is I think a tradition and its common for Federal Reserves not to raise and certainly change interest rates right before an election. So she is in sort of a tradition of what the Federal Reserve typically does. And its also typical especially recently for politicians to make the Federal Reserve the whipping boy or girl for political reasons. Sometimes theres good reasons. For that.
But there was something kind of unusual for this meeting. In the recent meetings its been unanimous to keep interest rates the same or to mostly do what the Federal Reserve has done. But this time it was quite contentious. There were actually 3 people on the federal open market committee, the ones who make this decision who voted to raise interest rates.
This is kind of challenge to Janet Yellens leadership in this regard and it also shows what kind of pressure the Federal Reserve is under, particularly from the banks and the mutual fund industry, the insurance industry because with interest rates being so low, its very difficult for them to eek out much of a profit. And is typically the case when interest rates are very low for a very long period of time. Some sectors and very powerful important sectors of the financial industry push very hard for interest rates to be raised and they usually get a pretty good hearing at the Federal Reserve [be]cause the Federal Reserve has traditionally done pretty much what the banks have wanted them to do.
BROWN: Jerald it seems as if theres not enough agreement between the Federal Reserve and among every day Americans on how well this economic recovery is going. So lets unpack some of the elements of this. Starting with Chairwoman Janet Yellens comments on labor markets.
JANET YELLEN: Were generally pleased with the progress of the economy and the decision not to raise rates today and to wait for some further evidence that were continuing on this course is largely based on the judgement that were not seeing evidence that the economy is overheating and that we are seeing evidence that people are being drawn in in larger numbers than what I wouldve expected into the labor market and that thats healthy to continue.
BROWN: So the unemployment rate was under 5% in August and the caveat to that is more Americans are working part-time jobs. Plus, the gig economy is one way that people are surviving and supplementing their income. So is unemployment published monthly by the Bureau of Labor statistics, giving us an accurate figure on the number of Americans who are out of the labor force?
EPSTEIN: They dont have an accurate number. They have estimates and I think its true that theres still quite a few so called discouraged workers who are out of the labor force. Its also the case like we said in the beginning that wage growth has been stagnant. Look, the Federal Reserve has a real dilemma here. On the one hand and this is typically the case with Janet Yellen who I think does want to indicate that their policies have had some effect, otherwise nobody will want them to continue these policies. And she thinks that they have had some positive effect on employment and I think they have.
But on the other hand their policies cannot turn around the long run decline of our economy. We need much different kinds, much bigger, much more radical policies in terms of public investment to generate jobs, hiking the minimum wage to a living wage, providing much more in a way of a safety net for workers, protecting pensions and other investments. So the list is very, very broad and very deep. And the Federal Reserve has been pretty reluctant to go further down that list.
The Federal Reserve could do more. They could use different tools to invest directly in the economy. Theres a group called Fed Up which has proposed that they do this. But Janet Yellen and her committee want to stay pretty close to their broader toolkit that theyve developed and are really afraid to, I think take more radical action which they plausibly could take.
But in the end it really raises questions of the Federal Reserves legitimacy. Can they take some kind of really radical action without the broader government saying go ahead and do it? And until the political stalemate we have is resolved, Im afraid the Federal Reserve cant do much more and that means this kind of stagnation in wages and so forth is going to continue.
BROWN: Jerald you raise an excellent point about wage stagnation and how wages have largely remained flat going back 20, 30, and even 40 years depending on who you ask. But new census data this month says that household income jumped over 5% which is the largest such gain in decades but that top 1% of Americans saw an increase of around 7% rise in their income. If most of the economic recovery gained since the great recession of 2007, 2008--if most of these gains have gone to the top1%, does it still count as a recovery if its not being felt by the majority of Americans?
EPSTEIN: No it does and this has been a very lopsided so called recovery and yes there have been some modest gains for the middle class and some working class people. So the Federal Reserve actions have had some positive effect. But until you really change the structure, change the tax policies so that the wealthy have to pay more of their taxes so the multinational corporations cant park their earnings overseas and not pay any taxes like Apple and other corporations have been doing until you have much more aggressive jobs programs to bring about a Green transition and many other things. Were not going to have a real recovery. These kind of very small sorts of gains which are gains but arent enough are going to be the best were going to see.
BROWN: Jerald whats keeping inflation in check right now? Is it cheap oil prices?
EPSTEIN: Its several things. First of all, cheap oil prices and other commodity prices are one thing. But theyre also partially related to the headwinds in the global economy against economic growth. Chinas not growing as much so theyre not demanding as much oil and other commodities. Many other developing countries arent growing so fast. Europe isnt growing hardly at all.
So this really dampens the demand for all of these commodities and with these prices going down that does keep inflation in check. The other thing is, all of the forces that are keeping wages in check. That is, imports from China, the union busting thats been going on, the threat of multinational corporations to move abroad. All of these factors plus more are making it very difficult for workers to have their wages go up. Wages are a cost so that to some extent keep inflation in check as well.
And finally you have the retail industry thats subject to loss of competition that just keeps squeezing and squeezing and squeezing workers more and more. Until we get big increase in the minimum wage, until we get policies to put workers back to work at well-paying jobs, were not going to see real wages go up and were also not going to see prices go up very much at all.
BROWN: And lastly Jerald, the wealthiest Americans, the top 1% of Americans are fairing very well and we are experiencing income inequality probably at the largest gap since the Gilded Age. We have seen so many sickle economic bubble burst over the past 20 years with the tech bubble bursting in the late 90s and the housing bubble bursting in the mid 00s. Are we at risk of another such economic bubble burst on the horizon any time soon.
EPSTEIN: Yes, were always at that kind of risk. Its hard to see where exactly the bubble would come from. There are little bubblets going on all over the place that dont seem so broad and connected up with debt and the financial system that it seems as so were going to have a kind of bubble burst the way we saw in 2007, 2008 but we might have bubblets burst in the high tech industry and so forth. Whats more likely is this slow burn of stagnation and increases in distress effecting so many people in the United States except for the wealthy who will continue to do very well. Not only income inequality at all-time highs, wealth inequality, how much assets people own has grown and grow and grow and grown. If you look for example, if the net wealth, that is assets minus liabilities, minus debt of African Americans in this country. A report recently came out that said, the median net wealth of African Americans is zero. Theres no net wealth. So this system cannot continue to go in this form. It helps to explain a lot of the political disorder that were seeing. The political fighting up were seeing and its just going to keep going unless we have some fundamental changes in the economy.
BROWN: Indeed. Weve been speaking with Jerald Epstein. Jerald is a co-director of the Political Economy Research Institute. Hes also professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. Jerald as always, we appreciate you joining us here on the Real News.
EPSTEIN: Thank you very much Kim.
BROWN: And thank you for tuning in to the Real News Network.
End
DISCLAIMER: Please note that transcripts for The Real News Network are typed from a
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Democrats to introduce bills to challenge arbitration system
Democrats to introduce bills to challenge arbitration system
By Nick Niedzwiadek
ALBANY — Democratic lawmakers are expected to introduce a pair of bills to counter how corporations use binding arbitration to limit their financial exposure in legal...
By Nick Niedzwiadek
ALBANY — Democratic lawmakers are expected to introduce a pair of bills to counter how corporations use binding arbitration to limit their financial exposure in legal disputes.
Consumer advocates say corporations are increasingly requiring potential employees and consumers to agree to binding arbitration in the event of a dispute as a precondition for employment or use of a product. They say that such proceedings lack transparency, put people on an uneven playing field against well-heeled corporations and can leave people with little other legal recourse.
Assemblywoman Latoya Joyner of the Bronx and Sen. Brad Hoylman of Manhattan are expected to introduce a bill that would amend state labor law to allow employees or organized labor organizations the power to bring legal proceedings against an employer for potential violations as a stand-in for the Department of Labor — independent of any private employment agreement. The state would recover a portion of the fines assessed as part of such proceedings.
Senator Jose Serrano of the Bronx and Assemblyman Brian Kavanagh of Manhattan would establish a similar process for private citizens to seek civil penalties on behalf of the state for violations of consumer protection statutes if the applicable public agency fails to pursue them due to a lack of resources.
“Too often large companies take advantage of consumers by forcing them into signing 'take-it-or-leave-it' contracts that include hidden clauses requiring forced arbitration that heavily favor businesses,” Serrano said in a statement. “My legislation will create a level playing field and give the power back to the consumers in New York State by allowing them an opportunity to fight back when they are victims of fraud."
Several of the legislators are expected to announce the legislation at a protest in Manhattan on Thursday along with New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Public Advocate Tish James, according to organizers. Joining them will be a number of progressive groups, including the Center for Popular Democracy, Citizen Action, Make the Road New York and New York Communities for Change. The event will coincide with the release of a report called: “Justice for Sale: How Corporations Use Forced Arbitration Agreements to Exploit Working Families.”
"Legal rights are worthless if there's no remedy when laws are broken,” Kate Hamaji, a research analyst at the Center for Popular Democracy who authored the report, said in a statement. “Forced arbitration essentially allows corporations to opt out of the justice system by creating a private parallel system that makes it prohibitively expensive to seek justice and creates incentives for arbitrators to rule in favor of companies."
The report can be found here.
One More Day of Protests Planned in St. Louis Area
New York Times - October 13, 2014, by Minica Davey and Alan Blinder - After demonstrations that varied from choreographed marches to tense late-night encounters with law enforcement agents,...
New York Times - October 13, 2014, by Minica Davey and Alan Blinder - After demonstrations that varied from choreographed marches to tense late-night encounters with law enforcement agents, protesters said they expected a series of acts of civil disobedience around the region on Monday, the last of four days of organized protest that has drawn throngs of people to the St. Louis area over questions about police conduct.
Leaders for the protests provided few details of their plans, except to say they would be employing a strategy used by demonstrators in North Carolina, who last year began staging weekly protests known as “Moral Mondays” in response to actions by the state government, which was newly controlled by Republicans. Those protests in Raleigh, the state capital, resulted in hundreds of arrests and served as a template for similar, smaller demonstrations across the South. The website for what organizers here have called a “Weekend of Resistance” said simply, “We’ll be hosting a series of actions throughout the Ferguson and St. Louis area.”
It is an area on edge after more than two months of demonstrations that began in Ferguson, the St. Louis suburb where an unarmed black teenager was fatally shot by a white police officer in August. In recent days, the displays of anger have spread to the city of St. Louis, where protesters have appeared at the symphony hall, outside playoff games for the St. Louis Cardinals and near the neighborhood where another black teenager was killed last week by a white off-duty police officer.
Early Sunday morning, tensions mounted between the police, dressed in riot gear, and a group of demonstrators who held a sit-in at the entrance of a St. Louis convenience store and refused to move. Seventeen people were arrested on accusations of unlawful assembly, pepper spray was used by some officers, and D. Samuel Dotson III, the city’s police chief, said he had seen a rock thrown at an officer and heard of other rocks being hurled.
Although some protesters spoke of plans for nonviolent demonstrations on Monday, organizers warned that frustrations had intensified because of the police response on Sunday morning. “Instead of de-escalating rising tensions in the city, Chief Dotson’s comments are inciting anger and making matters worse,” the organizers of many of the protests said in a statement early Sunday. The demonstrators, they said, “showed the best of our democracy, and the St. Louis police demonstrated the worst of their out-of-control law enforcement agency. The police brutalized peaceful people protesting their brutality.”
One question seemed to eclipse all other concerns here, among the protesters and the police alike: What will happen when a grand jury considering charges against Darren Wilson, the Ferguson police officer who shot Michael Brown, 18, on Aug. 9, returns its decision, perhaps next month?
“It may clearly be a flash point,” the Rev. Osagyefo Sekou said of the possibility that Officer Wilson would not be prosecuted. “People are going to be angry. There are definitely going to be protests.” In an interview before he spoke at a rally Sunday night, he added, “But this is part of a long struggle. It is part of a long struggle against police brutality.”
Chief Dotson, who walked amid the crowd during some of the weekend demonstrations and defended the police handling of the standoff early Sunday, was unwilling to make predictions. “I don’t have a crystal ball,” he said in an interview on Sunday afternoon. “We hope that the community recognizes that the process works.”
Preparing for Monday’s events, several dozen demonstrators sat in a church sanctuary on Sunday morning for what amounted to a tutorial on tactics of civil disobedience. Lisa Fithian, an experienced activist from Austin, Tex., pressed audience members to call out the reasons they were there. She heard responses like “anger” and “solidarity” from a crowd that included people from the American Federation of Teachers and St. Louis’s Coalition of Artists for Peace.
In a parking lot outside the church, Ms. Fithian spoke about breathing deeply to stay calm, especially as the authorities close in on a demonstration. She talked of remaining aware of where the police officers were posted along nearby streets. She explained possible responses by the authorities to an array of actions by a protester being taken into custody. She demonstrated the mechanics of going limp.
“It’s really essential to practice it,” she said. The crowd eventually returned to the sanctuary, where journalists were asked to leave. The organizers said they would be planning specifics of the protests.
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Poll Finds Voters Rank Lack Of Parental Involvement, Over-Testing As Top Education Problems
iSchoolGuide - April 8, 2015, by Sara Guaglione - According to...
iSchoolGuide - April 8, 2015, by Sara Guaglione - According to a new poll of registered voters, voters ranked lack of parental involvement and over-testing as top issues in U.S. education today.
Other education issues voters ranked included: cuts to funding for programs like art, music, and PE; too many students per class; recruiting first-rate teachers; and poverty and hunger's effect on student learning, according to the poll conducted by In the Public Interest and the Center for Popular Democracy. Interestingly, lack of choice was ranked last, despite the national attention surrounding charter schools.
Studies have shown over the years that parental involvement is crucial to a student's educational achievement. A report from Southwest Educational Development Laboratory titled A New Wave of Evidence concluded back in 2002 that "when schools, families, and community groups work together to support learning, children tend to do better in school, stay in school longer, and like school more."
Over-testing is an issue that has also taken the forefront in the nation's education debates, both in the classroom and in congressional buildings. As we previously reported, nearly every state in the country has an "opt out" movement from new Common Core standardized exams, according to Elizabeth Harris of The New York Times. Concerned parents taking to social media and school board meetings to protest have captured the attention of school officials.
According to the National Education Association's blog, the poll also found that 63 percent of voters rate the quality of education at public schools in their neighborhood as excellent or good and 68 percent hold a favorable view of public school teachers. Only 11 percent had an unfavorable view.
Voters are also more likely to say public schools in their neighborhood are getting better (31 percent) than getting worse (16 percent).
Overall, voters were supportive of charter schools but voted for proposals to make charters more effective, accountable, and transparent to taxpayers. Respondents wanted teacher training and qualifications, anti-fraud provisions, and measures to ensure high-need students are served.
More than 80 percent of voters supported regular audits of charter finances, public disclosure of how taxpayer money is spent, and requirements that charter operators open up their board meetings to parents and the public.
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Debbie Lesko wins Arizona congressional race, leaves Republicans anxious about the fall
Debbie Lesko wins Arizona congressional race, leaves Republicans anxious about the fall
Ady Barkan, the California man with ALS who confronted Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona, over health care issues last year, started an organization to oppose GOP health care policies and raised money...
Ady Barkan, the California man with ALS who confronted Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Arizona, over health care issues last year, started an organization to oppose GOP health care policies and raised money for Tipirneni. "There is no such a thing as a safe Republican seat this year. Dr. Hiral Tipirneni overcame the odds to come within striking distance of victory in a deep red district, because the Republicans put their donors' greed ahead of the health of families like mine," Barkan said Tuesday.
Read the full article here.
2 days ago
2 days ago